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RotoExperts Draft Kit: Top 25 Point Guards

"That's where I'm going to jump. Just throw it to me."

From the RotoExperts 2011-12 NBA Draft Kit

These rankings were written on Dec. 15 and published a day later. If written today I would jump Kyrie Irving into the fourth tier, have Jarrett Jack in the sixth tier (since the Hornets haven’t procured another point guard), drop Toney Douglas a few spots (thanks to Baron Davis signing in New York) and take D.J. Augustin down a few notches in fear of a Kemba Walker coup d’etat. 

In the midst of a wild NBA offseason and uncertainty as far as the eye can see, Fantasy owners need the steady hand of a point guard to guide their team. The best NBA point guards are also some of the best Fantasy players, and no championship team is complete without at least a few of the top options on this list. The top Fantasy point guards anchor your team in assists and are often positive contributors in several other categories.

The following rankings are based on a nine-category, head-to-head league format (PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, 3FG, FG%, FT%, TO), using Yahoo!’s positional eligibility. We break down players into tiers as well to help you organize them within your overall cheat sheets. Finally: this is a list of true point guards expected to play the majority of their minutes at this position this season. There are several combo guards, such as Dwyane Wade, who are eligible at point guard in some leagues but ranked on the shooting guard list for our purposes.In tumultuous times like these, it is best to write your own cheat sheets in pencil and be prepared to move things around as needed based on roles changing and injuries sprouting up. The Chris Paul trade is a great example of this. Luckily, CP3 doesn’t move much as he’s the top Fantasy point guard in the game.

These rankings take into account not just stat projections, but injury risk, competition for minutes and other intangibles.

ROTOEXPERTS.COM POINT GUARD RANKINGS

TIER 1

1. Chris Paul, LAC

Projected Stats: 17.8 PPG,  4.1 RPG, 10.9 APG, 1.0 3FG, 2.3 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 2.7 TO, 46.9 FG%, 85.5 FT%

Paul has finally been traded, and visions of CP3 setting up Blake Griffin for breathtaking alley-oops are dancing in the heads of everyone who is now claiming they’ve been a diehard Clippers fan all along. Paul should be thrilled to land in this spot where he has a pair of top-notch finishers underneath in Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, and talent at other positions as well. In all the drama over where he was going to get traded, it’s easy to forget that he carries with him some risk due to his questionable knees. If he plays a full season at close to 100 percent, Paul is the top point guard and easy No. 3 pick in all formats. Continue reading

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Damn Lies Fantasy Hoops Show: Free Agency Frenzy

Tracy McGrady is set to sign a contract with the Atlanta Hawks' training room.

So much hoops to talk, so little time. Jeff and Greg were on the horn Wednesday night to go over the latest rumblings around the league, from the Chris Paul drama to the news that Chuck Hayes may join the Kings. Even Tracy McGrady was discussed, probably for way too long. Greg also gave his thoughts on the Damn Lies Top 150, comparing and contrasting Jeff and Tom’s more interesting selections. With the start of free agency looming, we’re all getting a little giddy for some fantasy basketball. Enjoy the show! Continue reading


Fantasy & Free Agent Fest: Atlantic Division

In the days leading up to the start of free agency on Dec. 9, Damn Lies & Statistics will be taking a look at each team’s potential moves, top fantasy players and more. We’ll start with the Atlantic Division.

BOSTON CELTICS
Fantasy-Worthy Players Under Contract (H2H Draft Round in Parentheses): G Rajon Rondo (2/3), F Paul Pierce (3/4), G Ray Allen (7/8), F Kevin Garnett (8)
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Glen Davis, G Delonte West, F Troy Murphy
Key Restricted Free Agents: F Jeff Green
What to Look For: Boston is a team looking to win right now. Allen and Garnett come off the books for the summer of 2012, so this is it. Unfortunately, since the core of the team is aging and expensive, there are few moves Danny Ainge can make outside of trading an asset like Rajon Rondo. Rumors are already starting to percolate that the Celtics could move Rondo for Chris Paul. Crazier things have happened under Ainge’s reign as GM. For now, the team will likely hope Jeff Green doesn’t get any big offers and try to fit him into a reasonable new deal. Davis is likely gone and West could return on the cheap. With the doddering Jermaine O’Neal as the team’s only center, expect the C’s to grab a few cheap big men. The bottom line is that barring a major trade, the fantasy values are set in stone here. However, we’re very wary of spending high picks on Garnett or Allen, and even Pierce, considering the condensed nature of the 66-game schedule. They will have to be rested regularly and are injury risks.
The Damn Lies Bold Recipe: Let both Davis and Green walk, re-sign West, lure Chuck Hayes on the cheap and maybe use the mid-level on Carl Landry or Tayshaun Prince. Fill out the roster with a Roger Mason or Theo Ratliff, and try to win with this group. Dwight Howard and Chris Paul ain’t walking through that door. Continue reading


2011-12 Damn Mock I: Second Round

The Damn Lies & Statistics 2011-12 Mock Draft continues with round two. You know you love it.

The rules: Jeff, Tom and Greg are taking four teams each in this 12-team league, which is a nine-category rotisserie league (FG%, FT%, PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, 3FG, TO) that will draft the following: 1 PG, 1 SG, 1 SF, 1 PF, 2 C, 1 F, 1 G, 2 U. We’ll be building each team ourselves based on this format. Hope you enjoy, and feel free to mock us in the Comments.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FIRST ROUND

DAMN MOCK I: SECOND ROUND

13. Team 12 (Tom) – Josh Smith – After taking Dirk in the first round, I have a little FT% wiggle room and a need for some defense, assists and more rebounds. I’ll opt to kill two birds with one stone here and pick up one of the league’s best all-around defenders and someone who can pull in 8-plus boards per game. As a plus, Smith did shoot a career-best 72.5% from the free-throw line and actually made 0.7 threes per game last season, so it’s not as if he’s completely deficient in those categories. I now have my Franklin and Bash. Continue reading


Fox Unbalanced: Wake Me Up for the Playoffs

"At least this isn't Libya" is a phrase Knick fans can use for at least a few more weeks.

It’s good to be back on the beat. I’d like to thank my good friend and colleague Mr. Andriesse for exposing us as frauds the other day. Yes, our NCAA Tournament brackets were an absolute embarrassment, yes we had Temple, UCLA, Washington, Utah St. and Pitt going way further than they did, and yes we didn’t write last week because we were rendered in the fetal position while watching our teams lose in the most disgusting fashion, but it was still a better showing than my 2010-11 fantasy basketball team. Funny thing is, we predicted the Big East would stink and that Jimmer Fredette would go on a Birdesque run through the tourney, yet i don’t think we have a team still alive.

On to more pressing matters, it looks as if the, uh, “Two Superstar” theory for the Knicks isn’t exactly going as planned. The New Yawkahs fell to 7-10 since Little Anthony the Imperialist joined the fray, including back-to-back home meltdowns against Boston and Orlando. From a fantasy perspective, Melo recorded probably his finest game as a Knick last night, totaling 24 points, five rebounds, nine assists and two steals, and sent legions of Knicks supporters into cardiac arrest by shooting 50 percent (6-12) from the field. From a fan’s perspective I think Melo jerseys are dangerously close to being burned in effigy at a more prolific rate than Muammar Gaddafi posters in Libya. This is not going to end well. They went from a team in salary cap Siberia, to miraculously one with a nice little future ahead of them in which to build, finally to one in which most of that cap is being spent on three guys who fit poorly together. Just wait until Amar’e Stoudemire disappears next season. But fear not Melo fans, Mike D’Antoni will be the fall guy next year if this isn’t turned around.

There are a little more than three weeks left in the regular season and I’ve got to say that when one has no shot at a fantasy championship, there is just an empty feeling when opening a box score. I do hope that Jeff, Tom and I can put together the same playoffs league we got going last April. That was a good time and that includes the draft in which I called my picks in to Jeff while driving in a monsoon on the New Jersey Turnpike. So, for all of you like me, who are completely out of your races, let’s take a sneak peek at a potential first-round of a 10-team, eight-category, non-percentage roto playoff draft in which the categories are as follows: Points (1 pt); FT Made (1 pt); Rebounds (2 pts); Assists (2 pts); 3-Pointer Made (3 pts); Steals (5 pts); Blocks (6 pts); Turnovers (-3 pts). Continue reading


Damn Lies Midseason Report: Atlantic Division

A cheap ploy for us to get page views, and Nets forward Kris Humphries.

We’re gonna mix it up a bit this week at Damn Lies. Now that the season is roughly halfway over (emphasis on ‘roughly’), we thought it would be fun to hand out grades to each player who has made an impact, positive or negative, on the fantasy landscape. Think of these as sort of the Golden Globes to our annual postseason awards, The Dammies, only with fewer scientology jokes. This isn’t very scientific, in the sense that the three of us were liberal arts majors and are much more comfortable making stuff up rather than postulating an actual theory, which I can rarely do without pulling a muscle. For each team, we’ll assign grades based on how players have lived up to fantasy expectations. If a guy has disappointed or has been hurt more than not, he could get a ‘D’ or ‘F’ even though his numbers aren’t totally awful. If someone went undrafted in every league but has come out of nowhere to offer solid value, he could get an ‘A’. Or not. It’s really up to us. Don’t think to much about it.

I’ll start with the Atlantic Division, and we’ll have a new division per day. Enjoy! Continue reading


Damn Lies Fantasy Preview: Boston Celtics

A hard-fought Game 7 with the Lakers, played without Kendrick Perkins, that could have been won. Doc Rivers returning, as well as the team’s core. A point guard who is one of the rising stars in the league and peaking just in time to take over the alpha role from the team’s veterans. Optimistic Celtic fans have a lot to point to for the upcoming season.

Pessimists, however, would say the C’s tinkered too much in the offseason, committing money and years to two major question marks at center (Shaquille O’Neal and Jermaine O’Neal). They’d also wonder if Boston can once again coast, then turn it on for the postseason and roll through an Eastern Conference featuring a new juggernaut in Miami and a potential new one in Chicago. Of course, we won’t really know the answer to all of this until the playoffs. In the meantime, the C’s seem deep and talented enough to chill for much of the year, to the point where the team’s biggest worry might be whether Tommy Heinsohn commits a homicide due to the stricter technical foul rules. From a fantasy perspective, all of this needs to be taken into consideration. The Celtics have big names who won’t return anything close to the value we’ve come to expect from them in their primes, and they’ll do everything they can to assure their stars are fresh for one more run at the title in the spring. Draft accordingly.

This might be the only way to stop Rajon Rondo this season.

LIES
Rajon Rondo is one exception to this rule. Still the only true point guard on the roster, he should lead the team in minutes and keep his trajectory pointing skyward. Most fantasy experts won’t nudge Rondo above Jason Kidd, Steve Nash and Chauncey Billups, but I’m not among them. I’ll choose youth and upside as a tiebreaker and enjoy Rondo’s 2+ steals, 10 assists and 50 percent field goal percentage in the second round.

DAMN LIES
Boston’s Big Three are now clearly the Big Two Through Four. Paul Pierce has something left in the tank and should once again lead the team in scoring. But rest is as crucial as anything in Boston’s quest for a title and Pierce won’t turn it on until later in the year. Ray Allen is essentially a role player at this point in his career, albeit one who can nail threes and shoot 90 percent from the line. He’s a nice pick in rotisserie leagues if the value is right. Kevin Garnett is a shell of himself, but early reports are that he’s at least over the knee injuries that have plagued him over the last two years. Rivers will be stingy with his minutes and expecting more than 14 & 7 with nice percentages is wishful thinking.

STATISTICS
Who else should be drafted? The O’Neals are a great fit in Boston, but more for the area’s famous hospitals than anything they can do on the court at their advanced age. They just need to hold down the fort until Perkins returns from his torn ACL, probably in February. Jermaine is going very late in drafts because he can still block a couple of shots a game. Shaq should be avoided. The C’s do have a deep bench with plenty of potential fantasy options should injuries strike. Nate Robinson can fill it up if need be, but Rondo would have to be hurt for him to be a factor. The Shrek to Robinson’s Donkey, Glen Davis is the first to benefit should Garnett go down again; ditto for Marquis Daniels with Pierce. The acquisition of Delonte West is the single best signing in the NBA this offseason, if you ask me. Yet he’s not worth much in roto leagues unless Allen sits for any length of time. West is also suspended for the first 10 games of the year for his Mad Max routine. There’s a chance both O’Neals could go bad before Perkins is ready. In that case, keep an eye on Turkish signee Semih Erden, a banger with touch around the hoop who has been impressing in the preseason.

DEPTH CHART
PG – Rajon Rondo, Nate Robinson
SG – Ray Allen, Delonte West
SF – Paul Pierce, Marquis Daniels
PF – Kevin Garnett, Glen Davis
C – Jermaine O’Neal, Shaquille O’Neal, Kendrick Perkins (injured)

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