Tag Archives: Marcus Camby

RotoExperts Draft Kit: Top 25 Centers

If only free throws were this easy for Dwight...

From the RotoExperts 2011-12 NBA Draft Kit

These rankings were written on Dec. 17 and published Dec. 20. I’ve done several drafts in the last few days and have noticed that you are going to have to reach for Greg Monroe, JaVale McGee and DeAndre Jordan if you want them. Joakim Noah is falling and offering great value.  

For years, the center position has been the most important one in Fantasy Basketball. These days, with so many power fowards manning the middle often enough to earn eligibility at the position, it isn’t as crucial to burn early picks on true centers. Pau GasolAmar’e StoudemireKevin Love and David Lee are just a few examples of players who are power forwards most of the time but pick up center eligibility in most leagues.

For the purposes of these rankings, we have including only the players who are expected to play the majority of their minutes at the true center position this year. As always, it is important to examine your own league’s positional eligibility rules prior to drafting. The following rankings are based on a nine-category, head-to-head league format (PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, 3FG, FG%, FT%, TO). We break down players into tiers as well to help you organize them within your overall cheat sheets. These rankings take into account not just stat projections, but injury risk, competition for minutes and other intangibles.



1. Dwight Howard, ORL

Projected Stats: 22.7 PPG, 13.9 RPG, 1.5 APG, 0.0 3FG, 1.3 SPG, 2.5 BPG, 3.5 TO, 59.1 FG%, 59.8 FT%

To the casual player, Howard is the No. 1 center in the league by a mile. In Fantasy, it certainly depends on the format. He’s more of a second or third-round value in rotisserie leagues. In a head-to-head or points-based format, he challenges Chris Paul for the No. 3 overall selection. Howard’s dominance in rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage sets your team up perfectly in H2H leagues, as you can punt free throws and surround him with complementary pieces in the other categories. Howard also averaged 1.4 steals last year, an underrated part of his game and an amazing number for a center.

Continue reading


2011-12 Damn Mock I: Ninth Round

Oof. Round Nine. Say hello to Darko, Roy, Camby, et al. A cornucopia of “oof”. Things are thinning out to the point where the first rookie is off the board, before anyone knows where anyone will be drafted. But Kyrie Irving will likely go higher than this in real drafts as fantasy owners tend to want to grab the top picks earlier in case one or more breaks out. We’re not so sure any rookie in this class will return excellent fantasy value, as you can see by us waiting so long to grab a rook. The lesson: here’s where we start reaching. It’s always the most interesting part of the draft. An aside: Darko called to personally thank Greg for drafting him.

The rules: Jeff, Tom and Greg are taking four teams each in this 12-team league, which is a nine-category rotisserie league (FG%, FT%, PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, 3FG, TO) that will draft the following: 1 PG, 1 SG, 1 SF, 1 PF, 2 C, 1 F, 1 G, 2 U. We’ll be building each team ourselves based on this format. Hope you enjoy, and feel free to mock us in the Comments.



97. Team 1 (Greg) – DeAndre Jordan – The Clipper frontcourt is a bit murky right now with Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman already set. Even so, Jordan is still capable of putting up prodigious rebounds and blocks totals in 25 minutes a night. The Clips would love to trade Kaman and his enormous contract and give Jordan the run he deserves. Still, the chances of Kaman remaining healthy are about as good as Michelle Bachmann’s chances of claiming the 2012 presidency as he has missed an average of 34 games over the past four seasons. Continue reading

Damn Lies Midseason Report: Northwest Division

Just change the name of this division already, Stern, you cruel bastard. There aren't too many states Oklahoma is northwest of.

We now move our midseason reports into the Western Conference, specifically the Northwest Division, home to some of the top fantasy talent in the game. Durant. Love. Carmelo. Williams. Aldridge. Milicic. These names ring out on every corner of the fantasy world, and while this strangely-named division may be a bit geographically “all over the map” as they say, it will be fun to grade.

It’s the Northwest Division Midseason Report. Pencils down! Continue reading

Damn Lies Fantasy Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

Greg Oden has played in all 82 games over his first three seasons in the league. Not exactly what the Blazers were hoping to get out of him, but we can’t quite label him the Sam Bowie of the 2007 NBA Draft. He’s still just 22 years old and has a few more knee surgeries to go before we can call him a bust. The 21 games he played in last season were quite impressive, actually. He put up 11.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, shot 60.5% from the field and 76.6% from the line. And that was in just 24 minutes of action. You can’t quite commit to owning Oden this season. It has to be something of a “yeah, my team looks good so why not take a shot in the 11th round” sort of deal. If Oden is your second center, you’re in trouble. But I say that as someone who drafts him every year, and who selected him in the 10th round of a Roto league just yesterday. So take that for what it’s worth.


Reader Greg Oden sent in this picture of him and his pooch "Conley" reading Damn Lies and Statistics. (Ed. note: this was the only "usable" photo. *wink*wink*)


Brandon Roy missed 17 games last season with a bum hamstring. His loss was tougher on fantasy owners because you likely had to use an early 2nd-round pick to get him. Roy is known as one of those do-it-all fantasy contributors (blocks need not apply). On his career he’s just around the 20/5/5 mark, with 1.0 threes, 1.1 steals, 46% shooting from the floor, and a notch under 80% from the line. A healthy Roy is definitely worth a mid-2nd round selection. This year, however, he’s been going in the mid- to late-3rd round. If he can play in 75+ games this season then you are looking at an excellent value. The only problem is that he’s only played in 70 or more games twice in his four-year career. Keep your fingers crossed!

One player on the Blazers who often gets forgotten is LaMarcus Aldridge. The reason is because he’s a better on the court player than he is a fantasy player. Aside from his scoring (17.9), modest rebound numbers (8.0), and center eligibility, Aldridge doesn’t really provide much value. He can shoot close to 50% from the floor, but he’d prefer to stay at about 48-49%. His long 6-foot, 11-inch frame doesn’t care too much for blocking shots (0.6). And now with three legitimate centers on the Blazers roster it’s almost as if he doesn’t need to board and block. It’s almost like he’s a lighter version of David West, which isn’t saying much since we know how soft West can be. At best I would look at Aldridge in the late-6th or early-7th round. But, to be honest with you, I don’t see myself actually looking at him at all. Sorry, bro.

There is a lot of interesting talent on Portland. Point guard Andre Miller had a disastrous start to the 2009-10 season, but turned it around in the second half and finished with decent numbers (remember that 52-point game against Dallas?) He’s good for some assists and steals, but cannot shoot the three-ball. His backup Jerryd Bayless is a nice spark-plug scorer off the bench, but he won’t have any value unless something happens to Miller. The Blazers signed Wes Matthews this offseason, though he too has some competition in Roy and my favorite sleeper pick (sorry, Bubs) Nicolas Batum. I like Batum mainly for his threes (1.5), steals (0.7, but he’s better than that) and percentages (51.3 FG%, 40.9 3PT%, 84.3 FT%). If he gets 28-30 minutes then lookout! Disgruntled wing Rudy Fernandez is also in the mix somewhere, though unless he’s moved he’s not worth a look. Marcus Camby has some competition in Greg Oden, but he should still be able to add bulk rebounds and blocks, as usual. Some are taking Camby in the 5th round, but I would feel more comfortable waiting until the 7th round, if possible.

PG: Andre Miller, Jerryd Bayless
SG: Brandon Roy, Wes Matthews, Rudy Fernandez
SF, Nicolas Batum, Luke Babbitt
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge, Dante Cunningham
C: Greg Oden, Marcus Camby, Joel Przybilla

Up Next: New York Knicks
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Daily Lies & Statistics: Something is definitely Bruin

Prior to the season, Jeff, Tom and I listed the guys we thought most likely to catapult themselves to the first round of our 2010-11 drafts. We tossed a few names around – Brook Lopez, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo – but we failed to include Russell Westbrook. The second-year point out of UCLA has played like Ethan Hunt the past few weeks, averaging 20.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 9.5 assists and 2.3 steals over his last eight games, and if he’s not a first-rounder next season, I’ll eat Werner Herzog’s shoe.

Authorities are investigating a suspicious package, postmarked in New Jersey, that recently arrived at Russell Westbrook's residence on Valentine's Day.

There are many aspects of Westbrook’s game in which to fall madly in love, but last week I sent a Valentine’s card to the part of his brain that controls defense. He is a freakish athlete and at 21 years of age he already shuts opposing guards down and has got a long and brilliant career ahead. With some improvement to his decision-making and a more accurate jumper, we could soon be speaking of him in the same breath as Deron Williams, Chris Paul and former Bruins backcourt mate Darren Collison.

It was a strange weekend in the NBA, highlighted by the new-look Knicks regurgitating late in regulation and then in overtime to the Thunder and also by the Jazz coming from 25 down to defeat Portland in OT. In the Knick game Tracy McGrady summoned the ghost of rotisserie past and dropped 26 points on 10-17 from the field in 32 minutes of work, but New York couldn’t overcome the aforementioned Westbrook (31-9-10) and Kevin Durant (36-5-3). In the Jazz/Blazers tilt, Brandon Roy returned to action and totaled 23 points, but he couldn’t offset the 22-point, 23-rebound, 5-assist effort out of Carlos Boozer as Utah continues to get it done.

With all of the player movement late last week, my intestines have been irate. Let’s take a look at how those involved in trades have done with their new teams:

Every time Tracy McGrady fires up that jumper of his, it makes fantasy owners and puppies cry.

Tracy McGrady (old team: Houston / new team: New York)
T-Mac still fires up that line-drive jumper with the same amount of gusto, but he did so with quite a bit of success in his Knicks debut on Saturday, finishing with 26 points. Most surprising was his 32 minutes of court time. McGrady, who continues to corrupt the minds of hopeful fantasy owners, is definitely worth an add. But temper expectations as his minutes will be limited for the first week or two and his shooting percentage could be painful.

Eddie House (old team: Boston / new team: New York)
House could be a sneaky pickup as a member of the Knicks. He could receive the same amount of minutes as the departed Nate Robinson and be an outstanding source of the three-ball. In his Saturday debut, he amassed 24 points and four 3-pointers in 36 minutes of daylight.

Nate Robinson (old team: New York / new team: Boston)
Kryptonate ate a bad burrito last week and has yet to suit up for the Cs. His value, which was creeping up as a Knick, will be diminished as a Celtic.

Steve Blake (old team: Portland / new team: LA Clippers)
Blake offers nothing but assists, but as long as Baron Davis is out he will pile those up in bunches.

Travis Outlaw (old team: Portland / new team: LA Clippers)
Outlaw should be returning from a foot injury in the next few days. He is enough the athlete and enough the talent to earn significant minutes with his new squad. He can shoot the three and block a few shots, but the Clipper frontcourt situation is getting congested and we need to see what occurs in the next few games.

Drew Gooden (old team: Washington / new team: LA Clippers)
Gooden has bounced around his entire career like a Hoppity Hop, but when he receives ample court time he does produce on the glass. The situation bears monitoring for the Clips, but don’t be surprised if Gooden is stuck in a timeshare with Outlaw, DeAndre Jordan, Craig Smith and Chris Kaman.

Kevin Martin (old team: Sacramento / new team: Houston)
Martin doesn’t seem to be a great fit in Houston, but this is where he ended up and he is coming off the bench… at least for now. This will put a terrific crimp in his value as evidenced by his 29.5 minutes, 13.5 points and 4.0 assists through his first two contests.

Carl Landry (old team: Houston / new team: Sacramento)
This trade is like the Louisiana Purchase for the Kings. Guys as rugged as Landry just don’t come around that often anymore. He reminds me of Anthony Mason without the ballhandling skills. He has started his first two games for Sacramento (14.0 ppg, 7.5 reb) and expect to see his numbers continue to move north.

Antawn Jamison (old team: Washington / new team: Cleveland)
Jamison owners are the big losers here as he goes from a situation where he has the green light in the parking lot in Washington to a situation in which he has to wait for a bailout pass from LeBron to hoist anything up. We’re still looking at 16-18 ppg, but Jamison will be exposed for the pedestrian yet solid all-around player that he is.

John Salmons (old team: Chicago / new team: Milwaukee)
Salmons joins his third team in less than a year, and despite underwhelming results for the Bulls, he will get a chance to resurrect his season with the Bucks. He played 33 minutes against Detroit in his Milwaukee debut and totaled 19 points and three 3-pointers. He followed that with 19 points, five rebounds, seven assists and a pair of threes in 37 minutes against Charlotte. His field goal percentage could destroy you in that category, but he will have every opportunity to turn his season around.

Hakim Warrick (old team: Milwaukee / new team: Chicago)
This is it for the athletic Warrick. If he doesn’t make the most of his big opportunity in Chicago, he will likely spend the remainder of his career as a journeyman. Through two games he is averaging 12.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.0 block in 28.0 minutes of work. Joakim Noah‘s impending return will eat into Warrick’s minutes, but he’s not a bad guy to take a chance on right now.

Marcus Camby (old team: LA Clippers / new team: Portland)
The Cambyman reluctantly arrived in Portland, where he will be expected to control the middle for the next two months. Through two games with the Blazers he has been an atrocity on the offensive end (2.0 ppg), but after a seven rebound outing against Boston, he corralled 18 in 36 minutes last night against the Jazz. Still a big shot-blocker (3.5 over his last two), health is the only thing standing in his way from being a top-5 center the rest of the way.

Tyrus Thomas (old team: Chicago / new team: Charlotte)
Thomas owners everywhere have sadistic grins on their faces as this fantasy beast in waiting is finally being unleashed. The Bobcats will be going small for much of the rest of the way and that will suit Thomas and his owners just fine. In his 25-minute debut vs. Cleveland he totaled nine points, 12 boards and a saliva-inducing six blocks in 25 minutes. He followed that effort with 12 points, 11 caroms and four rejects in 31 minutes at Milwaukee. Don’t be afraid to pounce on the groggy owners who missed the news of the trade.

Welcome to Week 18. There are five games on tonight’s slate, including Hawks at Jazz.

The Damn Lies Panel: Let someone else draft them

WEDNESDAY’S QUESTION: What is the starting five on your Let Someone Else Draft Them team?

Greg Fox:
Allen IversonOn my list of things to do this weekend, #4 behind pick up bag of Tootsie Roll pops is avoid Allen Iverson like the plague. I’ve made no bones over the years of my distaste for his game and overall personality, despite many seasons of freakish all-around numbers. He has formally arrived in Graceland, and when he’s not helping old ladies cross the street, he’ll join fellow newbie Zach Randolph in attempting to ruin the careers of the talented Hasheem Thabeet, Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo and Mike Conley. Speaking of Conley, with Iverson bullying his minutes, I think I’ll take a pass on him too.

Joining AI in my backcourt is Vince Carter. Now surfacing in Orlando, he will be asked to be second or third fiddle, something the cranky Carter is unaccustomed to. Vinsanity turns 33 this season, his wheels aren’t what they used to be and he now has talent and depth around him. More pedestrian numbers in the 19.0-point, 4.0-rebound, 4.0-assist range will likely be his max. Have I mentioned what an awful defender he is? If the Magic get off to a bad start, this marriage could be doomed.

Andrea Bargnani could average 20 and 10 for the next 15 years and I’d still recommend letting someone else draft him. With the addition of Hedo Turkoglu and Jarrett Jack, along with the return of a healthy Chris Bosh, the Raptors have way too many weapons to let this 7-foot stiff heave threes all day. Ok, I’m still a little bitter after choosing him as a breakout candidate in his dismal ’07-08 campaign, but I just can’t let bygones be bygones. Anyone around here know what a bygone is?

Unless it’s the final few rounds, I won’t be touching the Artest Formerly Known as Ron. I don’t think this is the combustible situation that many think it is; I just don’t think Artest is a good offensive player. He is still capable of helping in the steals department and he’ll probably chuck up enough threes where he’ll knock down one or two per night, but his field goal percentage and random missed games will crush his owners. His minutes will be limited by the potential of many Laker blowouts and there are way too many solid bench options if he becomes a little nutty as he is wont to do.

I’ll round out my Avoidable Five with Kevin Garnett who began his downward statistical spiral in his first and only year on my team (’07-08). KG, in my opinion, has been one of the three or four most valuable players in the league the past few years, but that and $2.25 will get you on the fantasy basketball subway. Rasheed Wallace, strangely enough, is now in Beantown to spell the 33-year old Garnett, who was already getting spelled way too regularly by the likes of Glen “Big Baby” Davis. A serious knee injury kept him out of last year’s playoffs, and with more than 1,000 games logged, I seriously doubt that new cartilage is beginning to sprout. If he somehow lasts through the first five rounds I’ll consider him, but we all know the likelihood of that happening.

Tom Lorenzo:
Baron Davis has not and will not find his way onto any of my teams. Just once since 2001-02 has Baron Davis played in more than 67 games in a single season. In his 10 seasons in the Association he’s shot 40.9 percent from the floor and just 69.7 percent from the free throw line. He’s killer on your percentages, can’t stay healthy, and if you play in a turnover league he might just kill you — emotionally. He just doesn’t do it for me.

Manu GinobiliI still can’t imagine what the mock drafters over at Mock Draft Central are seeing in Manu Ginobili this year that I’m not seeing. His current ADP over at MDC is 36.6. Really? I think there’s a little bit of selective memory going on over there. Doesn’t anyone remember that he missed 38 games last season and even when he did play he looked like he had thrown up the white flag. I can’t see Ginobili playing at full speed if he expects to suit up for 70-plus games this season. Look for the Spurs to limit his minutes with hopes that he’ll remain healthy enough to up his game during the playoffs. In the middle of the third round? No thanks.

Stephen Jackson played well over his head last season, and with his demands to be traded I just don’t see a system out there that suits his game better than Golden State’s. Imagine him in Cleveland or back with a team like the Spurs. Maybe they can keep him from dipping below the 40 percent mark from the floor or maybe they’ll help him tone down his 4-4.5 turnovers per game, but at what expense? There are just far too many problems going on in S-Jax’s head right now and I don’t have the gut to see if he can get it together.

Partly because his current ADP is 39.7 and also because he is already injured, I won’t be drafting Marcus Camby. He plans to be ready for the Clips season opener, but I’m not taking him in the late third. Six rounds later I might consider Camby, especially since he’s a top tier shot blocker and one of the best rebounders in the league. But he’s injury prone and — his ankle! Again! Haven’t we heard this story before?

I don’t know if it’s something personal, but I never draft Mehmet Okur. He doesn’t rebound enough for me or block many shots for a guy 6-11. Great, he can make three-pointers. But I can get a younger three-point shooting big with 1.3 blocked shots in his back pocket in Andrea Bargnani a few picks later. Bargnani has yet to reach his potential, while with Okur we know what he is. I also don’t like that Okur is part of that messy Millsap/Boozer situation in Utah. Think Jerry Sloan won’t opt to play Boozer at center and Millsap at the ‘four’ in stretches? Also, as a little draft tip for you guys, you can get similar value out of Channing Frye nearly 80 picks later. You can have Okur, because I’m in no rush to grab him.

Jeff Andriesse:
Ever get back together with an ex-girlfriend thinking she’s changed, only to get burned again, and worse? That’s the relationship I have with Gilbert Arenas, and thus won’t be returning his phone calls this preseason. Gilbert vows he is healthy and going to pass first this year, but his brain bone ain’t connected to his knee bone, so he can’t make any guarantees there. While Arenas has the potential to return major value, he can also expedite your squad’s demise.

In a similar vein to what Greg was talking about above, O.J. Mayo is a leper to me now that Allen Iverson has infested the Grizzlies. Will there be a single happy, productive player on this roster? Mayo has a right to expect a larger role this year, but with A.I. he will have trouble matching his impressive numbers from his rookie season. Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay will be politely asking Mike Conley for the ball as well, so we’re looking at some disappointing and rather surly fantasy options in Memphis. I’ll be avoiding Mayo, but remain fascinated as to how all of this is going to play out.

Carmelo AnthonyCount me among the few who considers Carmelo Anthony overrated in fantasy. I’m not suggesting that Anthony won’t improve on his ’08-09 digits (22.8 PTS, 6.8 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.1 STL, 44.3 FG%, 79.3 FT%, 1.0 3FG, 0.4 BLK) but what I am saying is that he doesn’t dominate any category other than scoring, assuming he brings his average back up around 25 per game. He’s now played in 66 games or less in two of the last three seasons, so there’s another cause for concern. Folks are grabbing him 38th over at Mock Draft Central, but I’m steering clear of the guy who was ranked 104th last year in Yahoo.

“Resting him for the playoffs”. Whether it be Ginobili, Steve Nash, or Kevin Garnett, we’ve heard that phrase bandied about a lot this preseason. I’m all for bandying, but this is a disturbing trend. As a case in point, consider me oil and Tim Duncan water. If I’m going to invest a second-round pick for someone who might sit out completely once a week, I’m probably not going to win my league. While Duncan’s averages will still hover around his usual 20, 11 and two blocks, his games played will shrink into dangerous territory. Right now, I’m equating him to a Rashard Lewis and imagining he’s suspended for at least 10 games.

I was already avoiding Greg Oden purely based on the dump he took on my roster last year when I wasted a sixth-round pick on him. But that’s a purely visceral reaction. What’s really keeping me away is this sudden new-found drooling over Oden by fantasy geeks because the child-man is tearing it up this preseason. He’s already gone from a major injury risk who could be had late, to a darling sleeper selection in the middle rounds. I’m in neither camp, so I’ll be building my teams sans-Oden while others worry about what to do with him and when that next knee injury is coming.

Who are you avoiding in drafts? Who is going too high or too low? Let us know your thoughts in the Comments section.

Basketball draft prep: 5 overvalued and undervalued fantasy picks

As a long-time sufferer of acid reflux disease, I’ve been provided lists by countless GIs of what foods to avoid. For those of you not in the know, it’s the standard peppermint, chocolate, citrus fruits, caffeine and tomato sauce that seemingly cause most of the intestinal angst. But I’d bet my last Indian Head penny that your local proton pump inhibiting pusher hasn’t gotten to the true root cause of the problem. Namely, the ownership last season of Top 15 selection Allen Iverson, or the purchasing in 2007-08 of first-rounder Kevin Garnett, or the 2006-07 debacle that was Peja Stojakovic.

Despite more than a modicum of fantasy basketball success over the years, as a perennial Marcus Camby owner, nobody’s innards have churned more than mine.  With that in mind, I’m here my fellow GERD sufferers to put an end to your digestive woes by imparting the only wisdom I have at my disposal, my list of five players who will get selected too high in your drafts along with five guys who owners will miss the boat on.

Five who will be Picked too High

5. Ron Artest, F, LAL
2008-09 stats: 17.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.4 bpg, 40% FG, 75% FT, 2.2 3-pt FG

The poster boy for Modern Psychology surfaces in El Lay, where he will continue to cause all kinds of turmoil. He’s still a more-than-capable defender and one of the toughest players in the league, but the Artest formerly known as Ron is officially a detriment on the offensive end. His play on the court is often secondary as the Long Island City product is just as likely to appear on an episode of Dr. Drew as he is to arrive to the Staples Center for a 7:05 tip. Someone will take him in the top six rounds. If he’s available in the eighth, that wouldn’t be a bad spot.

4. Shaquille O’Neal, C, CLE
2008-09 stats: 17.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.4 bpg, 61% FG, 60% FT, 0.0 3-pt FG

You’ve got to hand it to the big phony, I mean fella, who two years ago in Miami looked like he was cooked. The trade to Phoenix brought about a renewed vigor and last season saw him record his best totals since ’05-06. Now he is the missing piece, at least in Danny Ferry’s eyes, for a Cleveland title run. But my jury is officially out. Shaq will do some good things this year as he will be motivated to help LeBron. However, his minutes will be kept to a minimum as the Cavs try their best to keep him healthy. Minutes will also be reduced as they will be involved in several lopsided games, so let the other owners in your league duke it out for his services in the top eight rounds.

3. Marcus Camby, F/C, LAC
2008-09 Stats: 10.3 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.8 spg, 2.1 bpg, 52% FG, 73% FT, 0.0 3-pt FG

The Cambyman has parlayed his length and athleticism into a prolific fantasy career as one of the top rebounding and shot-blocking big men of his era. Unfortunately for his long-suffering owners, with the exception of the ’07-08 season, he has missed tons of time due to various ailments. Now 35 and vying for minutes with Chris Kaman and Blake Griffin, those 20-rebound, 6-block, 4-steal days could be few and far between. Someone in your draft will jump on him in the top four rounds… don’t be that someone.

2. Richard Jefferson, F, SAS
2008-09 stats: 19.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.4 aps. 0.8 spg, 0.2 bpg, 44% FG, 81% FT,1.6 3-pt FG

Let me first say that I love Jefferson as a player. If Cleveland would have gone after him last season at the expense of Wally Szczerbiak‘s expiring contract, Cadaver fans and Kobe haters would likely still be lighting cars on fire in downtown Cleveland. Jefferson is a perfect fit for the Spurs, but the ball will be shared way too much for him to put up the same scoring totals he has been amassing throughout his career. He has never been confused with Fat Lever in any other category, so draft accordingly in the 90-100 range.

1. Kevin Garnett, F, BOS
2008-09 stats: 15.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.2 bpg, 53% FG, 84% FT, 0.0 3-pt FG

Garnett’s days as a high draft choice should have ended last season following a statistically brutal 2007-08 campaign, but those nostalgic owners who love big names continue to corral him in the Top 20. Not only are his overall totals way down from his fantasy salad days in Minnesota, he now barely plays 30 minutes a night and will be rested on a regular basis as this could be the Celts’ last hurrah. KG ‘s team-first approach brought about a new attitude to the C’s and everyone has bought in. But as we all know, winning basketball doesn’t always translate well to fantasy. At best a fourth-round pick.

Five who will be Picked too Low

5. Andrew Bogut, C, MIL
2008-09 stats: 11.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.0 bpg, 58% FG, 57% FT, 0.0 3-pt FG

Bogut missed most of the ’08-09 campaign with a stress fracture in his back that required surgery. Owners are bound to sleep on him because they’ll be afraid he won’t be recovered and simply because he is so goofy looking. I’m expecting this hard worker to revert to ’07-08 form, which included 14.3 points and 1.7 blocks per game. Milwaukee has little in the way of offense and Bogut should be its primary source of points in the paint. There’s no way he goes earlier than 60-70.

4. Brook Lopez, C, NJ
2008-09 stats: 13.0 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.8 bpg, 53% FG, 79% FT, 0.0 3-pt FG

No one will benefit more from the absence of Vince Carter than the happy-go-lucky Lopez, who is a star in the making. He has all the tools to post an 18-point, 10-rebound, 2-block season, which is what I predict will be his final totals. There are few centers I would take ahead of him and he’ll probably last until the seventh or eighth round.

3. Monta Ellis, G, GSW
2008-09 stats: 19.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg. 0.3 bpg, 45% FG, 83% FT, 0.3 3-pt FG

If you don’t pounce on Ellis in the top seven rounds, little Yerry will be making a big mistake, Yerry. Before he shredded his ankle in his infamous water balloon fight in the winter of ’07, Ellis was quickly becoming one of the toughest guards to defend off the dribble in the history of the game (That’s right, I said it). Even if his jets aren’t all the way back, his quickness and skills will still be good enough for him to average well over 20 points and nearly 2.0 steals, while shooting near 50 percent from the field.

2. Courtney Lee, G, NJ
2008-09 stats:
8.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.2 bpg, 45% FG, 83% FT, 1.1 3-pt FG
At the other end of the Carter trade, the talented Lee will have first crack at the starting two guard spot for the Nets. Lee was quite the find out of Western Kentucky for the Magic, but Otis Smith decided he’d rather have a gunner to ruin what they had going for them. Lee should go in the top 11 rounds, but he probably won’t. A 15 ppg season is not out of the realm.

1. Anthony Randolph, F, GSW
2008-09 stats: 7.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.2 bpg, 46% FG, 72% FT, 0.0 3-pt FG

If Don Nelson weren’t the head coach and if I was more confident that a stiff wind wouldn’t bowl him over I’d have Randolph as a sure-fire breakout candidate. As it is, the lanky forward should see enough daylight, albeit sporadic daylight, to be a poor man’s Gerald Wallace this year. I’d be shocked if anyone touched him in the top 10 rounds. Hang in there with him and expect some monster weeks.

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