Damn Lies Fantasy Preview: Miami Heat

All right, I think I have this Heat situation figured out.  I’m just going to bust out some stream of consciousness stuff here before I forget what I’m talking about.  Miami averaged 96.5 ppg in 2009-10. Its top three scorers last season – Dwyane Wade (26.6), Michael Beasley (14.8) and Jermaine O’Neal (13.6) produced 58 percent of the points.  It’s top three rebounders – Udonis Haslem (8.1), O’Neal (6.9) and Beasley – grabbed 43 percent of the rebounds and its top three playmakers – Wade (6.5), Mario Chalmers (3.4) and Carlos Arroyo (3.1) – handed out 68 percent of the assists.

LeBron, Wade and Bosh answer the media's incessant questions about the Mario Chalmers-Carlos Arroyo point guard battle.

Let’s start by giving it an additional six points a game to 102.5 because of the additional firepower.  Let’s move the total rebounds up from 41.8 to 44.0 and the assists from 18.9 to 22.0 as Heat statisticians will be inclined to give dimes for passes in the layup line.  Haslem and Mike Miller are on this team and will average around 8-9 points apiece with a handful of other stats, so we’re looking at approximately 85.5 points, 32.0 rebounds and 19.0 assists to be divvied among the troika and the rest of the roster.  Let’s give those non-denominational, non-descript, non-conformist other seven guys, including Chalmers and Arroyo, 25.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists.

So, now we’re left with 60.0 points, 23.0 rebounds and 14.0 assists.  The Big Three will be down considerably in scoring, the rebounding won’t change and the assists down slightly.  Shooting percentages will be higher for all three and peripherals around the same.

There you have it.  Knock ’em down a peg, but don’t be afraid to grab LeBron James third overall, Wade in the top six and Chris Bosh in the late second/early third.  Like most teams, they will be involved in lopsided contests which will limit minutes.  But also be mindful that most teams are involved in blowouts on both the winning and losing end.  I can’t envision this team getting blown out of too many buildings.

Not since Stalin, Lenin and Trotsky have we seen such a trio wreak havoc on a nation. LeBron, Wade and Bosh haven’t even played four minutes together yet!  LeBron The Facilitator (known as LTF the remainder of this piece) wants badly to prove that he is a terrific teammate who doesn’t need to shoot the ball 30 times to be effective, and will only do his chucking against the Celtics, Magic and Lakers.  LTF’s scoring will be in the 22.0 – 24.0 ppg range. His rebounding will come in at about 7.0 per game and his assists about 8.0 per game.  His peripherals were a sight to behold last year (1.6 spg, 1.0 bpg, 1.7 3-pt fg, 50% fg) and they should remain in this ballpark.

Wade strained a hammy in the opening quarter of the Heat’s first exhibition game and may miss the entire preseason. This will scare off some owners, but not me.  As a multi-year Wade owner, I’m happy that he is getting one of his injuries out of the way early.  He should be going full bore by the start of the regular season and it won’t take him long to acclimate to his new teammates.  Effort is one thing that can always be counted on with Wade, and although his points, rebounds and assists will take a little hit, all of his other mint numbers should remain in line with career norms.  Heck, he should even flirt with 50 percent from the floor with LTF trying to look like the good guy and finding him for easy buckets.  As for Bosh, he is from the same school as Wade in that we won’t have to be concerned about his effort.  He is the lone interior threat offensively and should average 17-19 points to go with 10 rebounds, a block and outstanding percentages.

Is there anyone else on this roster capable of helping fantasy teams?  Miller perhaps.  He can knock down the three with the best of ’em and should play enough minutes where his other peripherals won’t be completely disgusting.  Haslem is solid in real life, but don’t go near him on draft day.  Chalmers and Arroyo are battling for the job of bringing the ball from the backcourt to the frontcourt and handing it to either LTF or Wade, and if your league has a Big Buddy category, Zydrunas Ilgauskas is your man.  Actually, if Joel Anthony wins the starting job at center, he could average more than a block-and-a-half a game.

This is going to be interesting.

PG: Mario Chalmers, Carlos Arroyo
SG: Dwyane Wade, Eddie House
SF: LeBron James, Mike Miller
PF: Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem
C: Joel Anthony, Zydrunas Ilgauskas

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One response to “Damn Lies Fantasy Preview: Miami Heat

  • Zelda in the night : Weakside Help

    […] Damn lies and statistics has a breakdown of LeBosh Wade. Maybe because at heart I’m a politics junky, but this for mine is the best quote regarding the off-seas0n: “Not since Stalin, Lenin and Trotsky have we seen such a trio wreak havoc on a nation.” […]

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