Damn Lies Fantasy Preview: Utah Jazz

Let’s talk Deron Williams for a second. Best point guard in the NBA? There are plenty nipping at his heels, but for my money, yes. I’d start a team with him in reality. But fantasy? Williams settles in clearly behind Chris Paul in our little game here, and it could be argued Deron’s value is a little overrated. There won’t be many players with more assists, but do you really want to burn a first-round pick on someone who isn’t outstanding in any other category? Wouldn’t you rather wait until the third or fourth to take Russell Westbrook or Darren Collison? It’s a tough call when you are staring down a pick anywhere from seven to 11, so here’s some tough advice: do it. Williams has essentially treaded water statistically for three years, but with a tweaked roster (Al Jefferson in, Carlos Boozer out; Mehmet Okur hurt) I think you’ll see a more aggressive Williams, at least offensively. He’ll score 20+ points this season, increase his threes slightly and take that next step. He still won’t catch Paul, but you can build your geek squad around him.

 

Magnet Hands. Coming October 2010. Rated PG-13.

 

LIES
Williams welcomes Jefferson this season to his arsenal of weapons, an intriguing move that should keep Utah at least competing for a spot in the top half of the West. Jefferson is one of the few pure back-to-the-basket big men in the game and he’ll command shots in the paint. Hopefully statisticians continue to award Williams with dimes even if Al holds onto the ball a little longer than Boozer did before shooting. Since this is Utah, we shouldn’t be too worried, right John Stockton? Jefferson should man the center position with the injury to Okur, who could miss a few months after rupturing an achilles. This means Paul Millsap is going to get starters minutes, and fantasy owners should be ecstatic. Millsap is a nightly double-double threat who could render Okur a bench option when he finally returns. He’s that good.

DAMN LIES
The rest of Utah’s lineup gives us some pause. Andrei Kirilenko is entering a contract year, but I’m not sure you should use an early pick on him. He’ll start at small forward, most likely, but the guy who averaged three blocks and two steals is not walking through that door. Kirilenko also hasn’t played more than 72 games in a season since 2004. The Jazz lost Kyle Korver and Wes Matthews in free agency, and in their place signed Raja Bell and will have to play rookie Gordon Hayward. I don’t see how this is a positive. I’ve also never been a huge fan of swingman C.J. Miles, likely the sixth man at this point. Ronnie Price is Williams’ backup and not a fantasy factor. The team is hoping to re-sign Kyrylo Fesenko before camp and recently added Francisco Elson, perhaps via reanimation. There’s not a lot of quality depth here, especially offensively; another reason I see Williams trying to make more happen.

STATISTICS
D-Will should be secretly licking his chops that Okur is sidelined. This team needs a shot in the arm and a full-time Millsap could be the difference. From a fantasy standpoint, dorks like us can’t wait to watch Millsap and Jefferson team with Williams to form a three-headed statistical monster every night. This is going to be fun. I’m targeting Jefferson at the end of the second round; he should be over his knee injury and thrilled to be on a contender. He could easily average 20-23 points but Millsap and his magnet hands will make sure his rebounding average hovers around nine. Somebody get me Marvel on the line, I just thought of something cool.

DEPTH CHART
PG – Deron Williams, Ronnie Price
SG – Raja Bell, Gordon Hayward
SF – Andrei Kirilenko, C.J. Miles
PF – Paul Millsap, Jeremy Evans
C – Al Jefferson, Mehmet Okur (injured), Francisco Elson

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4 responses to “Damn Lies Fantasy Preview: Utah Jazz

  • bubbly

    Well done brother Jeff. If Paul millsap gets starters mins…..drools….wow. What round do you have him going in? 4th? Would I lose my official DLAS junior writer status if I suggested him in the 3rd? The Utah scorekeeper is so ‘generous’ that all Jazz have to be bumped up. Good call to remind us of that, Jeff. bubbly

  • bubbly

    I now withdraw my Millsap in the 3rd round contention. His ft% is a potential roto disaster. But in H2H? I leave that to yall. Jeff is right on about Millsap being that good.

  • Harmanator

    It appears Millsap is poised to be a production machine with getting consistent minutes this year. However, I would be mindful of his foul trouble. In 16 games games last year he had 5 or 6 fouls, and thats without starting most nights (he did start 8 games). Additionally, once Okur comes back and works his way into the rotation (undoubtfully resulting from Millsaps foul trouble), will Okur take back his starting job later this season? I think he will. I like Millsap but Ill let someone else take him in the 4th round

  • Give Me The Rock » Blog Archive » Sunday Links

    […] Daily most recent team review looks at the Dallas Mavs, fBasketballBlog examines the Hornets, Damn Lies and Statistics breaks down the Utah Jazz, and Life is Just a Fantasy … Basketball Blog takes an in-depth […]

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