We continue our Mock Draft, with Round Three.
Rules: 8-category rotisserie league, 12 teams, 10 rounds, picking best available player (not building teams).
The participants: Steve Alexander (Rotoworld), Jeff Andriesse, Tom Lorenzo and Greg Fox (Damn Lies).
DAMN LIES & STATISTICS MOCK DRAFT
25. Steve – Joe Johnson
26. Jeff – Jason Kidd
27. Greg – Andrew Bogut
28. Tom – Tyreke Evans
29. Steve – Chauncey Billups
30. Jeff – Chris Bosh
31. Greg – Derrick Rose
32. Tom – Carlos Boozer
33. Steve – Al Horford
34. Jeff – Andrea Bargnani
35. Greg – Rudy Gay
36. Tom – Tim Duncan
THIRD ROUND ANALYSIS
Steve Alexander: Round 3 is where things get interesting. I got several comments from surprised readers when I took Andrea Bargnani in Round 4 in another mock draft, and then Jeff steps up and takes him near the end of the third round in this one! I for one am fine with that move. No Bosh, and really, no one to really score the rock, means Bargnani’s looks and opportunities are going up and he is going to rack up a ton of threes and blocks. He’s also going to score and should rebound more this year. I don’t think we’ll have to reach for him in Round 3 in most drafts this year, but I also don’t think he’ll be available in any leagues after Round 4.
I went with Joe Johnson, Chauncey Billups and Al Horford for my three 3rd-round picks, all of which seem to be appropriate. Horford is underrated in my opinion. Constant dub-dubs, blocks, won’t hurt you anywhere. One of the biggest questions in fantasy this year is where to take Chris Bosh. According to Jeff, it’s in the middle of Round 3 – which is exactly where he went in my last mock. Hard to argue with that, although I’m going to try to avoid him this year. Jason Kidd lasted until this round, which makes him a steal, Tyreke Evans looks like a perfect pick around 28, and Carlos Boozer should be a value pick if he can stay healthy. Rudy Gay and Tim Duncan also fell into the end of the third, which looks like nice value as well. Round 4 is going to be fun.
Jeff Andriesse: I was looking at both Kidd and Evans for several picks as far back as the mid-2nd, and feel they are bargains. Sure, Kidd will fall back at some point, but he’s one of those guys who finishes in the Top 10 among all fantasy players every year by numerous statistical standards. The thought of Evans getting into the lane with ease and dishing to DeMarcus Cousins and Carl Landry, or scoring at the goal, makes me salivate for his potential. My controversial picks in this round were Bosh at 30 and Bargnani at 34. Let’s think about Bosh for a second. I see him as a 2nd and 3rd quarter guy for LeDwyaneBron to lean on. They’ll dump it to him in the post when they need a basket or a trip to the free throw line. But he’s clearly falling off statistically. Will he be an 18-10 guy on this team? I think he can get 10 rebounds a game, but those points will fluctuate. Bosh is still a high-efficiency, high-volume free throw shooter, an invaluable fantasy asset. I’m not alone when I say it will be fascinating to see how this all plays out. As for Bargnani, this is a draft featuring Tom Lorenzo, and without violating omerta, I’ll just say I figured the fellow Italian wouldn’t last much longer. I liked Bargnani’s numbers last year, and I see them all rising except for his FG%, which should suffer, and his blocks, which should be about the same. Is 19.0 & 7.5, with 1.8 threes and 1.5 blocks out of the question?
Greg Fox: Seeing the name Bargnani, who tried like heck to ruin my season two years ago, in this round just set off a nervous twitch near my right clavicle. He’ll have little in the way of support in Toronto, unless one considers Linas Kleiza the next Kiki Vandeweghe, but in no way do I endorse Bargnani’s selection at any point in any draft. If Andrew Bogut’s elbow has been successfully re-attached following his gruesome fall last season, the big Aussie should provide solid third-round value. There has been great debate over where Tyreke Evans should go and No. 28 seems to be a nice spot. His lack of threes and potential for a low shooting percentage has me a bit wary. Chris Bosh’s place in all of this leaves us somewhat at a loss, but No. 30 seems to feel about right. The rebounding and blocks numbers should remain solid, and although his scoring is bound to drop with Joel Anthony and Kenny Hasbrouck in the fold in Miami, his field goal percentage could see a nice boost. I was high on Derrick Rose heading in to last year and a bum ankle kept his numbers pedestrian at best through the first two months. When finally healthy, he was the same explosive point guard who didn’t listen to a thing John Calipari said as an 18-year old at Memphis. This is his time and minus the threes, his overall numbers should be on par with Deron Williams.
Tom Lorenzo: There’s definitely some value here in the third round. I would have been happy getting Jason Kidd late in the second round, so it looks to me as if Jeff got a steal there. I took Tyreke Evans early in the third. Just a heads up: You will not be able to get him in the third round this year. If you want him, you have to make the move in the second, or simply pass on him. Every other mock I’ve done so far has had him going late in the first round or early in the second. I have yet to see him slip to the third. I would not use a first or second rounder on him, since he doesn’t make threes nor steal enough balls, but in the third round I can make the sacrifice. I’m also not so sure that Derrick Rose is yet a third-round selection. He too has trouble hitting the long ball or playing any defense. I was pretty surprised to see that Timmy Duncan dropped to the last pick in the round. I would have rather, in my heart, gone with David West, but my head pushed for Duncan. Hopefully this isn’t the year he completely breaks down. Andrea Bargnani is a nice pick here in the third. He’s going to be the leader of a depleted Toronto team. Remember, someone has to score on that team!