2010-11 Fantasy Hoops Mock Draft: Second Round

We continue our Mock Draft, with Round Two. For Round One commentary, click here.

Rules: 8-category rotisserie league, 12 teams, 10 rounds, picking best available player (not building teams).

DAMN LIES & STATISTICS MOCK DRAFT

ROUND 2
13. Steve Alexander – Dwight Howard
14. Jeff Andriesse – Brook Lopez
15. Greg Fox – Steve Nash
16. Tom Lorenzo – Josh Smith
17. Steve – Rajon Rondo
18. Jeff – Gerald Wallace
19. Greg – Monta Ellis
20. Tom – David Lee
21. Steve – Andre Iguodala
22. Jeff – Brandon Roy
23. Greg – Russell Westbrook
24. Tom – Al Jefferson

SECOND ROUND ANALYSIS
Steve Alexander:
In Round 2, I simply tried to take the players who filled needs I had, as well as guys who should be going at that time. As those of you who read me regularly know, Josh Smith is always on my hit list, but Lorenzo pimped me. I took Dwight Howard with the 13th overall pick (no turnovers in this league), then took Rondo and Andre Iguodala. The only really surprising pick to me in this round was Russell Westbrook, who returned about fourth-round value last season, and fell to me at the end of Round 3 in another mock I have already completed. I thought he’d still be around in Round 3 this time, but this is a sign of things to come. Westbrook is going to be an elite point guard, and despite his lack of threes and field goal percentage, the only place he’s going is up. If you want to make sure you get him this year, it might take a second-round pick. I also wouldn’t take David Lee in Round 2, but that’s where he’s consistently been going. The Warriors have revamped half their team, and Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and Lee are going to be the focal points of their offense. I just get the feeling Lee is going to be less productive this year, but then again, I also said that last year, and was dead wrong. Round 2 is a little early for Brandon Roy, in my opinion, but I was targeting him in Round 3. I think Al Jefferson with the last pick of Round 2 makes sense, as he should take advantage of his new opportunity in Utah. Lastly, I thought Jason Kidd and Tyreke Evans might go in Round 2, but they fell into Round 3. Overall, there hasn’t been too much that surprised me in this draft so far. If you read my First Round Breakdown column on Rotoworld today, you’ll see that much of the focus was on Stephen Curry and Amare Stoudemire, so while it may have been a little surprising to see me gamble on those dudes so early, I back up my reasons for doing so in that column. On to Round 3!

Jeff Andriesse: I went for Brook Lopez at No. 14, grabbing a center with few weaknesses. Lopez has no standout category but he was really, really good on a really, really bad team last year. He could be a 20-10 guy this season, while shooting 50-plus from the field and 80-plus from the line and a shade under two blocks. The injury risks associated with Gerald Wallace and Brandon Roy don’t need to be rehashed here in detail, but suffice it to say that both are capable of huge returns on your investment. For someone who correctly warns of Don Nelson’s dangerous puppeteering, Greg took Monta Ellis awfully high, but he is a statistical beast (Monta, not Greg). With Steve Nash, Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook off the board in this round, point guards are proving to be a premium position, as it should be. I worry a little about Nash now that Stoudemire is gone and inside threats are few and far between. Pick-and-rolling with Channing Frye and Hedo Turkoglu won’t be the same.

Greg Fox: I don’t know why I felt compelled to take Steve Nash at No. 15, but I guess it doesn’t get any safer than him. He’ll be 37 years old before the season ends, but it looks like he has another 12, 13 years left in him. I actually contemplated Gerald Wallace with that pick and Jeff grabbed him a few spots later. How did Crash only average 18.2 points and 10.0 rebounds last year? Does anyone remember a night when he had less than 25 and 17? I may have jumped the gun a bit on Westbrook at No. 23, but the upside for more steals (1.3) and threes (0.3) is there. Tom put plenty of faith in David Lee at No. 20. Heading in to the season, it seems impossible that he will finish with less than 20 points, 11 rebounds and 55 percent shooting, but Nellie is capable of mistaking him for former Celtic teammate Henry Finkel and confine him to a bench role. I do like Mr. Lorenzo’s selection of Al Jefferson at No. 24. A gimpy Jefferon averaged 17, 9 and 1.3 blocks last season. Now healthy and re-invigorated in Utah, those numbers should return to their customary 20 and 10 with additional blocks.

Tom Lorenzo: I like a lot of the second-round picks. Of course there is always danger in taking Dwight Howard in a roto league. You have to worry about the FT% and, if applicable, the TO’s. But then again, it wouldn’t be fair if he was able to hit his free throws and limit his turnovers. I took Josh Smith at No. 16 really just because I knew that Dr. A had him queued up and ready to draft. Actually, there’s a lot to like about Smith. He’ll probably lead the league in steals-plus-blocks this season. David Lee at No. 20 was a bit of a risky pick. Not necessarily because of the injury, but because I have to worry about Don Nelson and also the possibility that Andris Biedrins might be alive. I ended the round with Al Jefferson, who I think will have a huge year in Utah. I know Paul Millsap might take away a bit of his thunder, but when you have Deron Williams running the offense there’s always enough balls to go around (that’s what she said). I had no problems with any of the picks this round.

ROUND 3 HERE

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6 responses to “2010-11 Fantasy Hoops Mock Draft: Second Round

  • henrysherrell

    Anyone got a theory on why guys with shitty FT% always seem to go in the second round (Howard/Rondo/Smoove/AI9)? No-one is worried about the negative impact it could have on their team?

  • Jeff Andriesse

    I can’t speak for the other guys, but yeah, sure I worry. The problem is once you get into the second round you have to start giving things up – there are no perfect players. Taking Howard/Rondo/Smith around this time shows confidence that you can draft well in the middle and later rounds, where the fantasy titles are ultimately won. And in the case of those three in particular, the blocks and/or steals you get out-weighs the worry.

  • henrysherrell

    I totally understand that. Of course every player doesn’t cover all the bases so to speak, but it has always seemed that Rd 2 = FT% dump. Perhaps that’s just the way it is framed though. I suppose the argument is that if you draft J-Kidd, you are ‘tanking’ points at that point in time. But the reason I prefer a pick like him is that he doesn’t actually negatively affect total output, compared to players who brick freebies.

    Anyway, perhaps this is too meta for August. Keep up the great work guys, love it.

  • Spencer

    where do you think drafting dwight in a HTH is a good spot?

    Top 4?

  • Jeff Andriesse

    I’m inclined to take Howard 4th in a head to head league, yes.

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